Tuesday, August 01, 2006

FIFA World Ranking : The current calculation method

After the 2006 FIFA World Cup, a revised calculation procedure for the FIFA rankings was introduced; it is a significantly simplified procedure. The new rankings were compiled in response to criticism from the media.[1] Meetings were attended by FIFA staff and external experts and a large amount of research was conducted by this group, resulting in the new ranking system.[1] The new system was confirmed in Leipzig on 7 December 2005 by a committee of FIFA executives. Notable changes include the dropping of the home or away advantage and number of goals from the calculation, and the simplification of many aspects of the system.

The system, like the previous ones, is extremely similar to that of a league, though with changes made to ensure that it is still representative of the teams' performance despite playing differing numbers of matches per annum, and the differing strength of opposition that teams have to face. The factors taken into account are as follows:

Match result
Match status
Opposition strength
Regional strength
Matches within the previous four year period are included in the calculation, with more weight given to the more recent years.


Win, draw or defeat
In previous years a complicated system of points allocation was used, depending on how strong the opponent was, and how large the loss margin, which allowed weaker losing teams to gain points when playing a much stronger opposition, if they managed to put up a decent match. With the new system, the points allocation is simpler: three points for a win, one point for a draw, and zero points for a loss, in line with most league systems around the world.

In the event of a match being decided by a penalty shootout, the winning team receives two points, and the losing team one point.

Result Points
Win (no penalty shootout) 3
Draw 1
Loss (no penalty shootout) 0
Win (penalty shootout) 2
Loss (penalty shootout) 1

Match status
Different matches have different importance to teams, and FIFA has tried to respect this by using a weighting system, where the most significant matches are in the World Cup finals, and the lowest weighted are friendly matches. FIFA states that it wishes to recognise that friendlies are still important, since they make up of half of the competitive matches counted in the rankings.[12]

The match status multipliers are as follows:

Match status Multiplier
Friendly match x 1.0
FIFA World Cup and Continental cup qualifiers x 2.5
Continental cup and Confederations Cup finals x 3.0
World Cup finals match x 4.0
[edit]
Opposition strength
Obviously, a win against a very highly ranked opponent is a considerably greater achievement than a win against a low-rated opponent, so the strength of the opposing team is a factor.

The new system uses an opposition strength factor based on team rankings. The previous system was based on points difference.

The formula used is:

Opposition strength multiplier = [200 – ranking position]/ 100

Teams ranked 150th and below are assigned the minimum multiplier of 0.50.

Example 1: the opposition team is currently ranked 8th in the world:
(200 – 8) / 100 = 1.92 so the opposition strength multiplier is 1.92

Example 2: the opposition team is currently ranked 125th in the world:
(200 – 125) / 100 = 0.75 so the opposition strength multiplier is 0.75

Example 3: the opposition team is currently ranked 188th in the world:
Below 150th, so the opposition strength multiplier is the minimum 0.50


Regional strength
In addition to the opposition strength multiplier, FIFA considers the relative strength of entire confederations in the calculation. Each confederation is assigned a weighting between 0.85 and 1.0, based on the relative performance of the confederations in qualifying for the last three World Cups. After the 2006 World Cup, the weightings are:

Confederation Weighting
UEFA (Europe) 1.00
CONMEBOL (South America) 0.98
CAF (Africa) 0.85
CONCACAF (North and Central America and Caribbean) 0.85
OFC (Oceania) 0.85
AFC (Asia) 0.85

The multiplier used in the calculation is the average of the regional strength weighting of the two teams:

Regional strength multiplier = [Team 1 regional weighting + Team 2 regional weighting] / 2

Assessment Period
Matches played over the last four years (48 months) are included in the calculation, but there is a weighting to put more emphasis on recent results. Previously an eight year period was used. The date weighting is as follows:

Date of match Multiplier
Within the last 12 months x 1.0
12-24 months ago x 0.5
24-36 months ago x 0.3
36-48 months ago x 0.2

A team must play at least 5 matches per year to be included in the rankings.


Ranking formula
The final ranking points figure is multiplied by 100 and rounded to the nearest whole number.

Ranking points = (Result points) x (Match status multiplier) x (Opposition strength multiplier) x (Regional strength multiplier) x (Date multiplier) x 100

Examples
The following examples use these hypothetical teams and confederations, and assume the games are played within the last 12 months:

Amplistan is currently ranked 2nd in the world and is a member of confederation XYZ (weighting 1.0);
Bestrudia is currently ranked 188th in the world and is a member of confederation ABC (weighting 0.88);
Conesto is currently ranked 39th in the world and is a member of confederation QRS (weighting 0.98);
Delphiz is currently ranked 30th in the world and is a member of confederation HIJ (weighting 0.94).
A friendly match is played between Amplistan and Bestrudia. Amplistan wins 2-1.

Match Team Result points Match status Opposition strength Regional strength Ranking points
Amplistan vs. Bestrudia (friendly)
Result: 2-1 Amplistan
Bestrudia 3
0 1.0
1.0 0.50
1.98 0.94
0.94 141
0

Bestrudia gets no ranking points because it lost the game, so all factors are multiplied by zero.

Amplistan's 141 ranking points are calculated like this:

3 points for the win;
multiplied by 1.0 for match status (friendly match);
multiplied by 0.50 for opposition strength (Bestrudia is ranked 188th, so it has the minimum 0.50 weighting);
multiplied by 0.94 for regional strength (the average of the weightings for the two teams' confederations);
multiplied by 100.
More examples:

Match Team Result points Match status Opposition strength Regional strength Ranking points
Amplistan vs. Bestrudia (friendly)
Result: 1-2 Amplistan
Bestrudia 0
3 1.0
1.0 0.50
1.98 0.94
0.94 0
558
Amplistan vs. Bestrudia (friendly)
Result: 1-1 Amplistan
Bestrudia 1
1 1.0
1.0 0.50
1.98 0.94
0.94 47
186
Amplistan vs. Bestrudia (World Cup finals)
Result: 2-1 Amplistan
Bestrudia 3
0 4.0
4.0 0.50
1.98 0.94
0.94 564
0
Amplistan vs. Bestrudia (World Cup finals)
Result: 1-1 (Bestrudia wins on penalties) Amplistan
Bestrudia 1
2 4.0
4.0 0.50
1.98 0.94
0.94 188
1488
Conesto vs. Delphiz (Continental cup qualifiers)
Result: 4-0 Conesto
Delphiz 3
0 2.5
2.5 1.70
1.61 0.96
0.96 1224
0
Conesto vs. Delphiz (Continental cup qualifiers)
Result: 0-1 Conesto
Delphiz 0
3 2.5
2.5 1.70
1.61 0.96
0.96 0
1159
Conesto vs. Amplistan (World Cup finals)
Result: 0-0 (Amplistan wins on penalties) Conesto
Amplistan 1
2 4.0
4.0 1.98
1.61 0.99
0.99 784
1275

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